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Vladimir Putin cannot survive another year like 2024

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As 2025 begins, pessimism about Ukraine’s fate hangs in the air and the stench of appeasement on the wind. I find myself confused as to why, for it should be clear that the conflict has so far been an ignominious failure for President Vladimir Putin.

Unable to achieve the objective of subjugating his far smaller neighbour, he has instead inflicted enormous suffering on his own country and devastated its economy while undermining Russian prestige and strategic influence around the world.

Lest we forget that what was planned as a three-day “special operation” has turned into a three-year nightmare. Russia has made only limited territorial gains and has been incapable of capturing even the whole of Donetsk Oblast in the east. Last year’s grand offensive to establish a buffer zone at Kharkiv to protect Russian territory only seized a few kilometres along the border. Missile attacks aimed at plunging Ukraine into near-constant cold and darkness have clearly failed.

Meanwhile Putin has lost control of parts of Kursk Oblast to Ukrainian forces in the first invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War, failing to retake it despite enlisting North Korea as an ally in the conflict. Putin’s much-vaunted air defences have proven unable to halt Ukrainian strikes on airfields, oil depots and ammunition warehouses inside Russia. Even the capital, Moscow, has been penetrated by locally-produced Ukrainian explosive drones. The Russian navy has been humiliated, losing control of the Black Sea and unable to strangle Ukraine’s grain exports. Upwards of 15 of its ships have been sunk by sea drones with many more damaged and the remainder of the fleet forced to retreat from the Crimean peninsula and the shores of Ukraine.

The human toll from Putin’s sclerotic campaign has also been immense. Ukraine estimates that Russian forces sustained 427,000 casualties in 2024 alone. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, assesses that during the same period Russia seized 4,168 square kilometres; that means each square kilometre captured has cost more than 100 casualties.

The financial outlay on those casualties, with 6 per cent of the entire federal budget promised to support the wounded and compensate the families of the dead, is just one contributor to Russia’s increasingly precarious economy. Interest rates have hit 23 per cent with inflation at 9 per cent, driven by an unsustainable war economy badly damaged by global sanctions. The Russian financial system may not be on the verge of collapse, but no matter how much the Kremlin talks up its prospects, long-term economic stagnation seems inevitable even if the conflict ends in 2025.

Further afield, the war has severely damaged Russian credibility in the Middle East. Putin’s intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015 kept Assad in power. But the scaling back of his forces there to stoke the meat grinder in Ukraine together with the withdrawal in 2023 of the Wagner mercenary force – another casualty of the war – meant he was unable to save the dictator at the end of last year. Whether or not Moscow retains its bases in Syria, its reputation as a tough and dependable ally compared to the vacillating West will have been badly ruptured. Added to that, Russia’s weakness in Syria has inflicted damage, perhaps irreparable, on its chief regional accomplice and arms supplier, Iran. If Syria becomes a support base for jihadists set on terrorism inside Russia – a distinct possibility – it could be disastrous.

Contrary to Putin’s dream of resurrecting a Russian empire, he has risked turning the country into a dependency of the Chinese. Western sanctions have already made Russia more reliant on China for economic support and commerce than ever before. As Moscow’s economic situation worsens, the trade inequity will only deepen. Russia also depends on the Chinese supply of dual-use technology that is essential for its war production and North Korea would not have sent 10,000 troops to help fight Putin’s war without a green light from Xi Jinping. The conditions are being set for Moscow’s subordination to Beijing.

Despite Russia’s woes, we should not make the mistake of believing that Ukraine and the West are near victory in this conflict. Unfortunately the opportunity for that was lost at least two years ago by a combination of lack of resolve in Europe and fear of escalation in the US, which denied Ukraine the weapons it needed to drive Russia back. Ukraine has been unable to halt the steady Russian advance and is not going to be able to do so without substantially increased support, which is unlikely to come. Kyiv’s allies have become increasingly war-weary since the failed counter-offensive in 2023 and many are resigned to a peace deal. Recent comments by President Zelensky suggest he too is now prepared for that, even if it means territorial concessions.

Putin is playing hardball, rejecting a reported proposal by the US president-elect, which involved a 20-year delay to Ukraine’s Nato membership, Western security guarantees and a European-manned buffer zone. His stance may soften depending on how he sees the future of the Russian economy and how concerned he is over an unpredictable Donald Trump in the White House.

For now, we must kill the idea that Putin is “winning” the war. It has been a colossal failure. The tragedy is the West may be about to reward Putin with enough territory for him to claim otherwise, turning defeat into victory.


Colonel Richard Kemp CBE is a retired British Army officer who served from 1977 to 2006

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Michael_Novakhov
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Ukraine will no longer allow transit of Russian gas, Zelenskyy says

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy has ruled out the possibility of allowing the transit of Russian-made gas under the label of Azerbaijan.

Ukraine will no longer allow the transit of Russian gas through the country's territory after the end of this year, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on Thursday after meeting with leaders of the European Union in Brussels.

The ban, he added, will apply to any gas flow "coming from Russia" to avoid the risk of having Russian gas sold to Europe under the guise of Azerbaijan-made gas.

"We're not going to extend the transit of Russian gas," Zelenskyy told reporters.

"We won't allow them to earn additional billions on our blood. And any country in the world that can get something cheap from Russia will eventually become dependent on Russia – whether it happens in one month or one year. That's their policy."

The statement is set to go down badly with Robert Fico, the prime minister of Slovakia, a landlocked country that remains highly dependent on Russia's pipeline gas.

Slovakia imports three billion cubic metres from Gazprom, Russia's gas monopoly, every year, covering most of its domestic demand.

A major transit agreement between Ukraine and Gazprom, from which Kyiv earns constant revenue, is set to expire at the end of this year. The agreement accounts for half of Russia's pipeline gas exports to the EU, according to Bruegel.

Although Russia's pipeline gas exports to the bloc have plunged since the start of the full-scale invasion, a share of supplies continues moving unabated, freed from sanctions.

With the end of transit fast approaching, Slovakia has stepped up diplomatic efforts to ensure the country's energy flows are not disrupted.

As an alternative, Bratislava might resort to Azerbaijan, a small country in the Caucasus that has positioned itself as an affordable option for Europe to replace Russian gas. Deals with Azerbaijan are controversial due to the country's poor human rights record.

Under the scheme, Bruegel explains, Russia would supply gas to Ukraine labelled as "Azeri gas" while Azerbaijan would buy gas from Russia labelled "Russian gas" using the same infrastructure.

"In simple terms, there would be no change in the gas flows: EU traders would buy gas from Azerbaijan, which would buy gas from Russia," Bruegel said in an October study.

But on Thursday, Zelenskyy made it clear he would not tolerate such a deceitful operation, arguing the Kremlin would still earn money and, as a result, retain a key source of revenue to finance its costly and brutal invasion. He did not mention Azerbaijan by name but the Financial Times journalist who asked the question did.

"We don't want to play a game where this other country receives gas from Russia and then transits it. This is the same as continuing to profit from this war and sending money to Russia," Zekenskyy said in his reply.

The Ukrainian leader offered one exemption to the ban: Ukraine would allow the transit of Russian gas if the European buyer agreed not to pay Russia until the war ended. Doing so, though, would most likely result in a breach of contract and a halt from Gazprom.

"We will think about that," he said. "But we would not give Russia any chance to make additional billions that would be put into the war."

Slovakia's main gas buyer SPP has warned the loss of Eastern supplies would cost an additional €150 million in higher fees. According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine also stands to lose money from ending the transit of Russian gas. (Bruegel puts the number at 0.5% of GDP.)

"To be honest during the war, it's a bit shameful to talk about money because we're losing people," Zelenskyy said.

The news is expected to further sour ties between Kyiv and Bratislava.

Zelenskyy and Fico have had strained relations since the Slovak populist returned to power in October last year. Fico has gradually aligned himself with Hungary's Viktor Orbán to adopt a position deeply sceptical of military support for Ukraine.

"Ukraine won’t be invited to NATO. It will lose a third of its territory. There will be foreign military forces there," Fico said the day before the summit in Brussels.

Slovakia is in contact with both the Ukrainian government and the European Commission, which advocates the complete phase-out of Russian gas, to find a solution before the transit agreement between Ukraine and Gazprom ends.

"We are holding very intense talks at an international level on gas supplies in 2025," Fico said last week. "There are many hurdles, such as political statements by the Ukrainian side, the pressure on the suspension of supplies from the East to the West, proposals on gas deliveries that are much more expensive, including transit duties, which we reject. We see no reason to pay for gas more than required due to geopolitical reasons."

The halt in transit of Russian gas through Ukraine could also affect Austria and Hungary, although to a different extent. Earlier this month, Austria's OMV utility terminated its long-term contract with Gazprom after Russia cut off supplies, an incident that Chancellor Karl Nehammer denounced as "blackmail."

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After Moscow lost in Syria, Russian-Ukrainian war enters new phase

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New details on how a Russian “Pantsir” shot down the AZAL plane – Aze.Media

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The investigation into the crash of an AZAL aircraft on the Baku–Grozny route has revealed new details about the tragedy, according to the Telegram channel VChK-OGPU. Findings indicate that two missiles fired from a Pantsir-S1 air defense system directly struck the aircraft. The primary cause of the incident is attributed to chaos and malfunctions in electronic warfare (EW) systems, which “blinded” both civilian aviation and the air defense systems themselves.

At the time of the tragedy, multiple air defense systems were stationed in Grozny, including two Pantsir units, an S-300 system recently deployed from Syria, and a Buk missile system. The missiles were fired by one of the Pantsir crews located in the Visaitovsky District (formerly Staropromyslovsky). This system had been deployed following drone attacks on the Akhmat special forces building. According to the investigation, the crew launched two missiles: the first at 08:13:30 and the second 10 seconds later. Both exploded in the air, with the first detonating at 08:13:50 and the second at 08:14:30. The second explosion is believed to have struck the aircraft.

Investigators interrogated all three members of the Pantsir crew—the commander, operator, and driver. The commander claimed that the target did not appear as a civilian aircraft on the radar screen. He stated that powerful EW systems were active, jamming not only civilian but also military equipment. This prevented the air defense system from correctly identifying the aircraft, which was classified as an unidentified target.

When asked why the target was not recognized as a passenger aircraft, the commander admitted that its altitude and speed could indeed indicate a civilian plane. However, he stressed that he acted on orders received from a commander in Rostov identified as Borisov.

The situation was further complicated by miscommunication between air defense crews. It was revealed that another Pantsir crew identified the target as a civilian aircraft and refrained from firing. However, due to the EW systems, they were unable to warn the second crew, which subsequently launched two missiles. The investigation has yet to determine who activated the EW systems that disrupted both civilian and military communications.

The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reports that the military is attempting to promote a narrative that the missiles were fired at a drone but missed and self-destructed near the AZAL aircraft. Investigators, however, insist that debris and the nature of the damage indicate that the missiles deliberately targeted the aircraft.

Confirmation of this theory comes from revised event timings. New data shows that the strike on the aircraft occurred around 08:14, rather than the previously estimated 08:16.

This conclusion was reached after a detailed analysis of an audio recording of conversations between the dispatcher and the flight crew. In the transcript, a crucial moment was marked as “inaudible” (allegedly to omit a link between the missile explosions and the aircraft strike). However, the original audio clearly captures the phrase, “a bird hit me.” Two minutes later, the crew repeated the message more distinctly.

New data indicates that at 08:14, ground services recorded the aircraft 16 kilometers from the airport, still over the Naursky District.

Testimonies from the Pantsir crew commander revealed that they were not provided with a schedule of civilian flights. The commander contacted Rostov twice via stationary communication lines before launching the missiles.

According to the shift commander servicing the Pantsir, the target was “visually unavailable due to dense fog.” However, the commander of a second Pantsir system stationed at the airport observed the aircraft and, confirming it as a civilian flight, refrained from firing.

This fact emerged from background recordings in the control room. The recordings capture the second Pantsir commander informing the dispatcher via radio that the aircraft was in sight.

When investigators asked why the first commander did not contact the second system’s commander, he responded that stationary communication was “out of order” and mobile phones were “inoperative due to EW interference.”

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Syrian Rebels Capture Russian Pantsir System: Reports

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Insurgents in Syria appear to have captured an advanced Russian air-defense system, according to images widely circulating on social media, after rebel forces launched a surprise offensive last week in the north of the country that marked an end to a long-running stalemate.

Images appear to show Russian equipment, including a multiple rocket launcher and a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile system, in the hands of rebel forces in the country's second-largest city, Aleppo.

Newsweek could not independently verify this, but the U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said on Saturday that opposition forces "have likely captured valuable military equipment" that pro-regime fighters "abandoned amid disorderly withdrawals."

The Russian Defense Ministry has been contacted via email for comment.

On Wednesday, rebel forces swept into Aleppo and the Hama province, to the south of the city, in a surprise offensive that apparently met little resistance from forces controlled by Syrian President and Kremlin ally, Bashar al-Assad.

Forces loyal to the Syrian leader had pushed rebel militants, which include Turkish-backed fighters, from Aleppo and settlements in Hama back in 2016. The conflict, while not resolved, had lapsed into a relatively static conflict in recent years. More than 300,000 civilians were killed in the first 10 years of the conflict, the United Nations estimated in 2022.

Russia has supported the Assad regime since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, formally entering the conflict in 2015 to prop up the Syrian leader. The U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies has described the Russian move into the conflict as providing "decisive air power to Syrian and Iranian-backed ground forces," and broadening Assad's grip on territory in the country.

Moscow is deeply embroiled in its grueling war effort in Ukraine, while Iran is preoccupied with Israel, against which it launched two direct missile and drone attacks earlier this year.

The Syrian armed forces, loyal to Assad, said on Saturday that rebels had "launched a large-scale attack" on multiple points in Aleppo and Idlib, saying "dozens" of pro-regime soldiers were killed.

The army pulled back to strengthen their defensive lines, the military said, and to "prepare for a counterattack" to the most significant challenge to the Syrian president's rule in several years.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K-based monitoring organization, said on Friday that Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other factions had taken control of 20 "villages, towns, and positions in Idlib and Aleppo countryside." Idlib sits southwest of the city.

The ISW said on Saturday that opposition forces had seized Aleppo and "advanced toward Hama City" within three days of the start of the offensive. Rebels are thought to control the city's airport and major landmarks in Aleppo.

Syria's army said on Sunday it had pulled reinforcements to the northern Hama countryside, and that the "Syrian-Russian joint military aviation is intensifying its precise strikes" on the rebels' ammunition and weapons depots, headquarters and positions.

The SOHR said on Sunday that four civilians had been killed and tens of others injured in Russian airstrikes on Idlib. A total of 372 civilian and military personnel had been killed since Wednesday.

It also reported intensified armed clashes around northern Aleppo on Sunday and several Russian aircraft targeting rebel forces in the countryside around the city.

Assad, said on Saturday that Syria would "defend its stability and territorial integrity."

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Saudi Arabia Confirms Pantsir Introduction | Aviation Week Network

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